The Fourth Turning - The Current Cycle.

 

Neil Howe

The Authors and The Books

The Fourth Turning (1997)

Neil Howe and William Strauss

The Fourth Turning Is Here (2023)

Neil Howe

How To Prepare For The End of The World (As We Know It) (2027) Neil Howe

When you read The Fourth Turning, it can be confusing trying to keep the components of their theory apart:

• There are many cycles from the past till our current cycle. I have focused on the one immediate previous cycle and our current one (labelled as P and C)

• There are 4 archetypes, basically the 4 generations active in each cycle. You can think of them as "Oldies", "Mature Adults", "Young Adults", and "Teens and younger" (hence the P1 to P4, and C1 to C4).

• There are many dates in the book. One set are the dates (range of year of birth) for each of the P1 - P4, and the C1 - C4.

• Another set of dates (range of year) for each Turning in our Current Cycle.

The Previous Cycle

1865 - 1946

• P1 The Prophet Generation (Missionary) born 1860 to 1882. 
• P2 The Nomad Generation (Lost) born 1883 to 1900
• P3 The Hero Generation (G.I.) born 1901 to 1924
• P4 The Artist Generation (Silent) born 1925 to 1942

The Current Cycle

1946 - early 2030

• C1 The Prophet Generation (Boomers) Those born 1943 to 1960. Values-driven, visionary, provoking the crisis through cultural rebellion.

• C2 The Nomad Generation (Gen X) Those born 1961 to 1981 Pragmatic, survival-oriented, managing institutions through the chaos.

• C3 The Hero Generation (Millennials) Those born 1982 to 2004

• C4 The Artist Generation (Gen Z) Those born 2005 to present

The Four Turnings in This Cycle are:

The First Turning (1946 - 1964)

The Second Turning (1964 - 1984)

The Third Turning (1984 - 2008)

The Fourth Turning (2008 - early 2030s)

In The Fourth Turning of The Previous Cycle in 1929 - 1946.

• The world of WW2 (1939 - 1945) was started by the last group of the previous cycle. The P1 Prophet  Group, the 60 - 80 year olds. They were the Kings, the Presidents, and the governments. Their values clashed amongst nations driving the crisis. 

• The machineries of governance were led by a mix of P1 Prophet and P2 Nomad Groups, the 40 - 60 year olds. The Generals and senior officers, the senior bureaucrats of governments, and the senior corporate management.

• The war was mainly fought by the soldiers of the P3 Hero Group, the 20 - 40 year olds.

• The kids in P4 grew up in war time.

In The Fourth Turning of Our Current Cycle in 2008 - early 2030s.

Our world is led by The C1 Prophet (Boomer) Group of the now 60 - 80 year olds. Its their values that drive world events from politics to economics. 

• Their Role in the Crisis: Elders and Visionary Leaders. Entering elderhood, they transition from the cultural rebels of their youth into the stern, uncompromising leaders of the crisis. They provide the overarching moral direction, values, and ideological framework for the struggle—acting as the "wise old men and women" or the stubborn dogmatists driving the polarization. They are the Senior politicians, judges, community elders, religious leaders, cultural commentators, and institutional directors

The machineries of governance and commerce are led by the 40 - 60 year olds P2 (Nomads). 

• Their Role in the Crisis: Midlife Managers and Pragmatic Fixers. Nomads become the hands-on, cynical, yet highly resourceful "repair generation". While Prophets argue over morals and ideology, Nomads are focused entirely on survival, utility, and execution. They are the ones tasked with keeping the physical infrastructure and economy running under extreme stress. They are the military officers, supply chain logistics directors, engineering field supervisors, emergency responders, and pragmatic small-business owners.

The "soldiers" of our current Fourth Turning is the 20 - 40 year olds of the P3 (Hero) Group.

• Their Role in the Crisis: Young Adult Workers and Civic Soldiers. Coming of age during the Unraveling and entering adulthood in the Crisis, Heroes are characterized by teamwork, optimism, and civic duty. They are the boots-on-the-ground force that rallies behind institutional rebuilding. They are highly cooperative and look to solve massive collective problems rather than pursuing individualistic goals. They are the Soldiers, front-line healthcare workers, community organizers, technology builders, infrastructure workers, and collective civic action leaders.

The babies of our current Fourth Turning are The Artist Generation (GenZ), those aged below 20.

• Their Role in the Crisis: Protected Children and Adaptive Helpers. Because the world outside is in complete chaos during a Fourth Turning, the adults (Nomads and Prophets) fiercely overprotect this youngest generation. As children and early teens during the crisis, their job is to be cooperative, obedient, and emotionally supportive to their stressed families. They grow up to be highly empathetic, process-oriented, and detail-driven. These are the students, family helpers, and eventually, early-career consensus builders, experts, and process oriented professionals.

What Is The Likely outcome? What will be the World of 2030?

Neil Howe (and William Strauss, who died in 2007) used qualitative analyses of past histories (mainly US history) to develop the Social Generations approach for a recurring cycle.

His works in, The Fourth Turning, The Fourth Turning Is Here, and the upcoming How Do We Prepare For The End Of The World (As We Know It), is on how our Current Fourth Turning will develop and more importantly, his hope that The Next Cycle will bring a new beginning. Each generation taking over in each next turning have different (but repeated from previous cycles) views, beliefs, values and ways of social interactions.

In my opinion, the one basic assumption he makes (he's not doomer) is that we have not screwed up our world to such an extent in this current cycle such that the reset to the next cycle may kill most of us?

What do You think? Will this time be different?

(Howe avoids pinpointing an exact year, but his sequel points to the early 2030s as the likely climax. They posit that history rhymes.

I hope this post helps to encourage the reader to read the author's full books. A lot more details about the past cycles are in the first book. The second one focuses on the current Fourth Turning with updated details. The forthcoming book obviously will interest anyone wishing to prepare.)

Best Travel, Leaving No Tracks.

 

This chapter in The Daodejing by Laozi covers the ease of Wu Wei. The word "Good" here is used as one who follows The Dao.

In Tsai Chih-Chung's Laozi Speaks, it's called "Sagely Conservation". The best effortless way of action.

"The Good person is just The One Who Follows The Dao". The one "not good" is just the one who hasn't yet follow The Dao.

Wu Wei allows you to see, accept and learn from everyone.

An Addendum To A Pig's Tale And The Sad Potato.

 In case you think my previous post is entirely satirical, this addendum hopefully serves to make you think more critically on the true history.

The satire covers the time of the Middle Ages.

Religious aspects are not covered in that post. Anyone interested in the religious aspects can find other sources and references.

The Pig's Tale and The Sad Potato Story.

 In a land far, far away Sir Gandolf was given a fiefdom of 3,000 acres and 30 serf families as the reward for his success in battling the evil Sauron.

As Sir Gandolf settled down to his breakfast of kippers and a nice slab of waygu, he spoke to Gaston de Fidelis the Steward of his manor.

"Why don't we have any pigs as part of the tax from the serfs? I would love some bacon to go along with my low-carb single slice of toast slathered with that freshly churned butter."

Gaston bowed slightly and replied "Sir, the serfs let their pigs run wild, in the forests and behind their houses. The pigs eat anything and everything. They are not kept in a pasture. The serfs slaughter and salt them privately. We are unable to count the numbers, so we can't tax the serfs."

"That's totally unacceptable. It's totally unfair evasion of tax. It's depriving me of that lovely bacon and ham." said Sir Gandolf in a cold soft voice.

Gaston replied "Sir, you are absolutely right, all the lords have spoken on this problem."

Sir Gandolf finished his breakfast in deep thought. Gaston knew better than to interrupt the contemplation, it's best to await his lord's enlightened conclusion.

"Gaston, draft a Bill for The Banning of Pig Rearing by Serfs, circulate it for discussion amongst the elite lords, then for subsequent presentation to His Majesty for approval. That should stop this nonsense."

"Sir, I will see to that immediately." said Gaston.

Sir Gandolf rose from his breakfast table, pleased with his sharp decisive problem solving, then went for a walk.

-----------------++---------------

While he was taking a short cut on the way back to the manor, he kicked over a potato in the dirt patch behind a serf's hut. He looked the object and went to talk with Gaston.

"What's with those potatoes growing behind the serfs' huts?" asked Sir Gandolf.

"Sir, That's the other problem with serfs." replied Gaston. He continued "Tubers are underground in the dirt behind their huts and not in marked fields. The potatoes are dug up in small numbers for use in a meal, not in an annual harvest. Our tax accountant is unable to count and tax such tuber crops."

"Gaston, Gaston." 

"Just add a Mandate That All Serfs can only grow cereal crops like wheat and barley, to the proposal on pig banning."

"Sir, an excellent suggestion. I will see to that immediately." said Gaston happily.

"Measurement. The Key to Fame, Power and Wealth." Sir Gandolf said as he retired to the library to look at the pretty illustrations in that rather salacious manuscript that had arrived yesterday from France.

An Addendum to "The Egg is Not A Chicken"

 

From the previous post, you may be wondering how having Linoleic Acid (Polyunsaturated Fatty Acid PUFA) under the skin can affect a human body.

A number of people have commented that they seem to "sunburn" much faster and more intensely than in decades past. 

I remember that in my childhood, we ran around for hours in the sun without any sunscreen. We mostly got browner.

A "conspiracy theory" is going around that nowadays these PUFAs under our skin are burning up much easier than the saturated fats in previous times. Research are starting to appear on this issue. There's no settled conclusion at this time. But who knows?

This study (done in Brazil) checked for damage even when you have dark skin, which supposedly would have been protective in the tropics.

You might not want to totally rely on sunscreen to stay long in the sun. The SPF rating covers only UVB. The other UVA and UVC also affects you.

I am not an expert, so do your own research.

The Egg is Not A Chicken.

 

When that fertilized egg becomes a hatchling. What changes? 

A chicken egg is not a chicken. More precisely, the yolk is essentially a single giant ovum, packaged with albumen and shell. If fertilized, it contains the genetic material and the starter kit for a chick. The transformation from egg to living, breathing hatchling radically re-architects its biological and nutritional structure.

What’s in an egg?

The edible portion is roughly 76% water, 12.6% protein, 9.5% fat, and less than 1% carbohydrate. The egg white supplies mostly water and highly digestible protein. The yolk houses the fats, cholesterol, fat-soluble vitamins, and minerals. The yolk is roughly 16–18% protein and 32% fat, and it is far denser than muscle meat in fat-soluble vitamins (A, D, E, K), essential fatty acids including DHA, and choline.

What’s in a hatchling?

As the chick grows, it uses the egg’s fat as fuel and knits amino acids into complex structures. A hatchling has less fat and fewer total calories than the original egg because those simpler nutrients have been re-architected into bones, feathers, organs, a nervous system, and blood vessels.

What’s in chicken meat and fat?

Chicken breast or thigh is mostly protein and water, with little carbohydrate or fat. It is high in lean macronutrients, particularly niacin, vitamin B6, phosphorus, and potassium. Pure chicken fat is almost entirely lipids—an energy source with monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fats, but little protein, vitamins, or minerals compared with meat or yolk.

Why the differences matter.

The nutrient package in an egg is standardized. The yolk is far denser in choline, lutein, and vitamin D than chicken muscle meat. Chicken breast is lean protein. I’m not suggesting we eat hatchlings—I’m using the egg-to-chick transformation to show how nutrients get re-architected.

The history of industrial chicken.

For thousands of years—from ancient Rome through the Middle Ages to the early 1900s—chickens were kept primarily for eggs. Eating a chicken was a counterproductive luxury because a dead hen couldn’t lay eggs. Chicken meat was generally reserved for excess roosters and “spent hens.” Those tough birds were stewed for holiday meals and coq au vin.

The modern meat-chicken industry began largely by accident in Delaware in 1923, when a farmer named Cecile Steele ordered 50 chicks for egg-laying but was delivered 500. She fattened them for meat, and the venture was so profitable that it birthed the “broiler” industry.

In the 1940s, synthetic vitamins and antibiotics allowed farmers to crowd thousands of chickens indoors year-round without them dying of disease or rickets. 

In 1948, the “Chicken of Tomorrow” contest, sponsored by the US government and supermarkets, pushed breeders toward birds that grew unnaturally large and fast with massive breast meat. Before this shift, it took roughly 16 weeks to raise a small chicken to market weight. Today, modern broilers reach heavy slaughter weight in about 6 weeks.

The consequence: more chicken, more linoleic acid.

Chickens and pigs are monogastric, not ruminant. Ruminants like cows and sheep have a rumen filled with microbes that biohydrogenate polyunsaturated fats into more stable saturated and monounsaturated fats. Monogastrics lack that fermentation vat, so their body fat largely reflects the fatty-acid profile of their diet.

Historically, farm chickens ate bugs, seeds, worms, and kitchen scraps; pigs ate roots, acorns, and forest forage. Modern industrial feed is dominated by corn and soy, both high in linoleic acid, an omega-6 polyunsaturated fat. As a result, conventional chicken and pork fat contain substantially more linoleic acid than historic animal fats—though not levels rivaling liquid seed oils [cite fatty-acid profiles]. Because we eat far more chicken and pork than we did a century ago, these animals have become a quiet vector for elevated omega-6 intake.

What now?

Eat the egg. Think hard about eating so much industrial chicken and pork. Prefer ruminants—animals built with multiple stomachs to digest plants, handle plant toxins, and produce nutrient-dense meat and fat. There’s a reason beef and mutton have long been the meats of people with land and pasture.

Ghee, anyone?

The World Is Not Summarizable — and Neither Is What We're Building

"I am a witness. The world is the phenomena that arise based on the acts of 8 billion humans."

Stephen Wolfram says the computation cannot be summarized.

The Daodejing says: attain vacuity, observe the returning, know constancy, and you will not act recklessly.

Zhuangzi says: the wind plays ten thousand hollows, and no one blows them.

The Buddha says: this is how phenomena arise — and they are foam. The witness is the one who sees all of this and does not close the loop of craving onto the fleeting.

You don't need to understand how modern AI works to see that it belongs to a class of systems nobody can fully predict. That class is the subject of this post — and it turns out some very old philosophies have something precise to say about how to stand inside it.

1. Some systems can't be predicted — only run

In 1970, the mathematician John Conway invented a simple board game called the Game of Life. A few rules govern how each square changes based on its neighbors. Nothing more. And yet, as the game runs, patterns appear to glide across the board — gliders, blinkers, structures that seem to move and behave. No rule says "make a glider." The glider is what the rules do when run.

In the 1980s, a researcher named Craig Reynolds built a simulation of a bird flock, which he called Boids. Each simulated bird followed just three rules: avoid hitting your neighbors, go where they go, stay close to the group. No bird has the flock in it. No rule says "form a flock." And yet a flock appears — real, coordinated, and not contained in any single bird.

The physicist Philip Anderson wrote a famous essay in 1972 called More Is Different. His point: as complexity increases, genuinely new properties emerge. Enough molecules of water, and you get a crystal — a structure none of the molecules contains. The whole behaves in ways the parts do not.

Stephen Wolfram gave this a name: computational irreducibility. It means there is no shortcut. You cannot jump from step 1 to step 1,000,000 with a formula. The only way to know the outcome is to run every intermediate state, in real time. No master equation, no summary, no looking ahead. With computational irreducibility, we will not know the end result until the experiment is complete.

2. AI is now one of those systems

Modern AI models are trained on words and word-fragments, called tokens. During training, the model adjusts billions of internal settings — its parameters — so that it gets better at one task: predicting the next token. When you ask it something, it does exactly that. It predicts the next word, then the next, and the next, using those settings. This process is called inference.

For years, the pattern was predictable. Bigger models — more tokens, more parameters — performed better, along a fairly straight line. Then something happened that the straight line did not predict: a sudden leap. Not just faster computation, but signs of new abilities. Planning ahead. Creating its own rules.

One example that circulated: a model given the opening line "He saw a carrot and had to grab it" had already readied the rhyming words "rabbit" and "habit" for the line to come. That looks like planning ahead — preparing a rhyme before it is needed — not just guessing the next word.

Some researchers now describe the work differently. "We are no longer just programming these models," they say. "We are growing them. And then we look inside to see what grew."

Researchers call this emergence: capabilities that appear at large scale, weren't present at small scale, and weren't predictable from the small-scale curve. Arithmetic. Multi-step reasoning. Learning from examples inside a single conversation. Whether these are "real" abilities or just better pattern-matching is actively debated. What is not debated is that the inside of these systems is not summarizable. We can look. Looking is not the same as understanding.

3. So how should we stand?

First, a clarification. AI does not need to replicate a human brain to think. The philosophical position called functionalism holds that what matters is the computation, not what it is made of — silicon or neurons. On that view, it is the output that matters. You don't need a biological brain to do what a brain does.

Some people will not care about any of this, for various reasons. Others will worry, and say: "What can we do? The authorities will manage the risk." I can't settle that argument here. What I can offer is my own reading — of Wolfram, and of some Chinese philosophers, who were obviously not writing about AI.

Wolfram, no shortcuts; step-by-step execution; the outcome is unknown until the run is complete.

Zhuangzi, the Heavenly Flute (Qiwu lun, chapter 2): the wind blows through ten thousand hollows; each sounds its own note. No one plays them. The sound arises from conditions, not from an author. This is the flock metaphor, two millennia early. No bird contains the flock. No player blows the notes. The pattern is real, irreducible to any part, and no one authored it.

Daodejing, chapter 16: Attain the ultimate vacuity, preserve tranquility to the utmost. The ten thousand things arise in unison; I observe how they return. Returning to the root is called tranquility... Knowing constancy is called clarity. If one does not know constancy, one acts recklessly. This is the witness stance, named. Vacuity and tranquility, then observing the arising and returning, then clarity. The witness is not passive; it is the condition for seeing accurately. And the warning is built in: without knowing constancy, you act recklessly.

The Buddha, dependent origination (SN 12.2): "With ignorance as condition, volitional activities come to be; with volitional activities as condition, consciousness; with consciousness as condition, name-and-form..." Phenomena arise through conditions; no self contains them. And they are foam — transient, without substance. The witness sees this and does not close the loop of craving onto the fleeting.

4. What then is the future?

I don't know. That is not a dodge. It is the honest consequence of irreducibility. We will not know the end until the experiment is complete.

What I can do is take the stance these traditions describe: see clearly, act my part, and do not cling to the fleeting.

I am a witness. The world is the phenomena that arise based on the acts of 8 billion humans, intentional or not. With awareness, I see — and I do my best not to cling.