Tests of Predictions

One of the points that Nassim Taleb made in "The Black Swan" was that the future is uncertain, unpredictable, and most importantly; unquantifiable. But it is impossible for an expert (any expert in any field) to just give subjective comments without some quantified remarks.

An example is; The Financial Analyst says the profit for Co. ABC will go up this year. Is that acceptable? Would we not WANT him to say the profit will go up by RMX or X%? Due to the demand by the audience, Taleb says most "experts" will not say the truth; which is "I don't know how much". Instead they will use some formula, some reasoning and give a figure.

Let us collect the "predictions" I see in the papers (local and national). They will mainly be Malaysia-centric. Then let us see how accurate are these predictions.

Let's start with:

1. ECM Libra revises year-end FBM KLCI target to 1,480
   (Daily Express 4 August 2010)
2. OPR may remain at 2.75pc for end 2010 and 2011 : Morgan Stanley
   (Daily Express 4 August 2010)